BC polls today: the final polls of the 2026 campaign put the BC Conservatives ahead of David Eby’s NDP by about five points. The latest five-poll average is Conservatives 44.0%, NDP 38.9% and Greens 13.0%. Polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific tonight, and the live tracker below switches to seat results as the count comes in.
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Result: CBC News and CTV News project a BC Conservative majority government. David Eby has conceded and is resigning as premier and NDP leader, CBC News reports. With 99% of ballot boxes counted, Elections BC’s preliminary count at 12:22 a.m. PT has the Conservatives leading in 64 ridings, the NDP in 27 and the Greens in 2 (47 seats are needed for a majority). Popular vote: Conservatives 48.1%, NDP 37.4%, Greens 11.0%. Mail-in and absentee ballots are added in the final count, which begins November 6. (updated 12:24 a.m. PT, Oct. 25)
BC election projection: 338Canada seat forecast
Polls measure the popular vote, but governments are decided by seats. The 338Canada model, which turns the polls into a riding-by-riding forecast, updated its B.C. projection on election day, October 24, 2026:
| Party | Projected seats | Likely range | Projected vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 58 | 44 to 71 | 45% (±4) |
| NDP | 33 | 19 to 46 | 39% (±4) |
| Greens | 2 | 1 to 4 | 12% (±2) |
That gives the Conservatives an 87% chance of a majority (47 seats or more) and an 89% chance of winning the most seats. The NDP’s path is narrow: an 8% chance of a majority and about 2% of a minority. A projection is not a poll; it is a model built on polls, and the ranges are wide because a few points either way flips dozens of close ridings.
Who is winning the BC election?
Going into election day, the Conservatives under interim leader Lorne Doerkson were the favourites. Every poll released in the last week of the campaign had them in front, by between 3 and 5.9 points. That is a remarkable turnaround: when Premier Eby called the snap election in September, the first Ipsos poll had the NDP ahead 45% to 35%. By the end of September the lines had crossed, and they never crossed back.
A five-point lead in the popular vote usually means a Conservative government, but B.C. elections are won riding by riding. The NDP is strongest in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, and the Conservatives dominate the Interior, the North and the Fraser Valley, so a few close suburban seats will decide whether tonight ends in a majority or a minority.
Latest BC election polls
Every published poll of the campaign, newest first. Figures are each pollster’s share of decided (or decided and leaning) voters.
| Pollster | Field dates | Con | NDP | Green | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | Oct 21 to 23 | 44% | 40% | 10% | Con +4.0 |
| Mainstreet Research | Oct 21 to 23 | 42.9% | 37.2% | 17% | Con +5.7 |
| Leger | Oct 20 to 22 | 44% | 39% | 13% | Con +5.0 |
| Ipsos | Oct 20 to 22 | 44% | 39% | 13% | Con +5.0 |
| Pallas Data | Oct 22 | 45.2% | 39.3% | 12% | Con +5.9 |
| Pollara Strategic Insights | Oct 15 to 21 | 42% | 37% | 13% | Con +5.0 |
| Angus Reid Institute | Oct 15 to 19 | 46% | 43% | 8% | Con +3.0 |
| Innovative Research Group | Oct 15 to 19 | 43% | 38% | 12% | Con +5.0 |
| Mainstreet Research | Oct 17 to 18 | 41.7% | 36% | 14.6% | Con +5.7 |
| Leger | Oct 9 to 12 | 42% | 40% | 9% | Con +2.0 |
| Ipsos | Oct 7 to 11 | 43% | 38% | 11% | Con +5.0 |
| Research Co. | Oct 9 to 11 | 44% | 42% | 8% | Con +2.0 |
| Pallas Data | Oct 10 to 11 | 43.4% | 38.1% | 11.2% | Con +5.3 |
| Liaison Strategies | Oct 7 to 8 | 43% | 37% | 10% | Con +6.0 |
| Angus Reid Institute | Oct 1 to 3 | 48% | 43% | 7% | Con +5.0 |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 30 to Oct 1 | 44.7% | 37.2% | 11.2% | Con +7.5 |
| Pollara Strategic Insights | Sep 23 to 30 | 38% | 38% | 13% | Tie |
| Ipsos | Sep 25 to 29 | 42% | 40% | 10% | Con +2.0 |
| Leger | Sep 24 to 28 | 39% | 36% | 13% | Con +3.0 |
| Innovative Research Group | Sep 25 to 28 | 39% | 41% | 11% | NDP +2.0 |
| Liaison Strategies | Sep 26 to 27 | 40% | 39% | 11% | Con +1.0 |
| Angus Reid Institute | Sep 22 to 24 | 43% | 35% | 12% | Con +8.0 |
| Liaison Strategies | Sep 21 to 22 | 36% | 41% | 12% | NDP +5.0 |
| Innovative Research Group | Sep 4 to 18 | 39% | 43% | 14% | NDP +4.0 |
| Angus Reid Institute | Sep 8 to 15 | 37% | 41% | 13% | NDP +4.0 |
| Ipsos | Sep 8 to 14 | 35% | 45% | 10% | NDP +10.0 |
Best premier and the mood for change
Eby still beat Doerkson as the choice for best premier in the final Ipsos poll, 30% to 23%, but 53% of British Columbians said it was time for another party to take over, against 31% who said the NDP deserved re-election. Ipsos warned that “a BC Conservative victory is by no means a certainty,” with nearly one in four decided voters saying they could still change their minds.
BC election results tonight: what to watch
- 8 p.m. Pacific: voting places close and the first advance-vote counts are posted.
- 47 seats: the magic number for a majority in the 93-seat legislature. Watch the dark line in the tracker above.
- Metro Vancouver suburbs: Surrey, Burnaby, Richmond and the Tri-Cities are where a lead turns into a majority.
- The Greens: Emily Lowan’s party polled in the low teens and could hold the balance of power in a minority.
- Mail-in ballots: counted about two weeks later, so the closest ridings may stay undecided for a while.
Power is one of the quiet issues of this campaign, from LNG exports to the province’s ban on new crypto-mining connections. If you want the numbers behind it, here are BC Hydro electricity rates for high-load users, a look at Canada’s AI data center boom, and a guide to power grid strategies around Vancouver. Following the American vote too? Here are the November 2026 U.S. midterm election polls.
Still need to vote? Here is where to vote in BC today and what the BC Conservatives platform promises.
BC polls FAQ
Who is winning the BC election?
Before results, the final polls had the BC Conservatives ahead: the average of the five latest polls is Conservatives 44.0%, NDP 38.9% and Greens 13.0%. Seat results appear in the live tracker on this page after polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific on October 24, 2026.
What do the latest BC polls say?
Every poll released in the last week of the campaign showed the Conservatives ahead, by between 3 and 5.9 points. Ipsos (Oct 20 to 22) had Conservatives 44%, NDP 39% and Greens 13%.
Who is projected to win the BC election?
The 338Canada seat projection on October 24, 2026 had the Conservatives at 58 seats (range 44 to 71), the NDP at 33 (19 to 46) and the Greens at 2, with an 87% chance of a Conservative majority.
When do BC polls close?
Voting places close at 8 p.m. Pacific time on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Anyone in line at 8 p.m. can still vote.
When will BC election results be known?
Preliminary results start coming in after 8 p.m. Pacific, and most ballots are counted on election night. Mail-in and absentee ballots are counted about two weeks later, so very close ridings may not be final until then.
How many seats are needed to win the BC election?
There are 93 seats in the B.C. legislature, so a party needs 47 for a majority government.
Pricing a high-load project anywhere in Canada? The AI data center cost calculator does it line by line.
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Poll figures as published by Ipsos, Leger, Angus Reid Institute, Research Co., Mainstreet Research, Pallas Data, Pollara, Innovative Research Group and Liaison Strategies, September 14 to October 23, 2026. Results in the live tracker are updated by hand from official and media counts tonight; Elections BC’s count is the official one. Cover: original graphic, kevinkatovic.com. Not affiliated with Elections BC or any party.
Live Results