BigBear.ai stock (BBAI) closed at $2.39 on October 9, 2026, less than half the $5.34 it hit on June 1. So is BigBear.ai worth $5 a share again? Here is what $5 would mean for the valuation, how much cash the company has, what could push the stock back up, and what could keep it down.
BBAI at a glance
- Price: $2.39 (October 9 close). Reaching $5 would take a 109% gain.
- Last time at $5: June 2, 2026 ($5.11 close).
- Cash and investments: $409.8 million, about $0.85 a share.
- Next earnings: October 27, 2026.
Contents: Where BBAI trades now · What $5 a share means · Cash and dilution · The business · Risks · October 27 earnings · FAQ
Where BigBear.ai stock trades now
BigBear.ai trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BBAI. The stock jumped in late May 2026 and closed above $5 on three days in a row, from May 29 to June 2. Then it slid for four months. On October 8 it touched $2.34, a new 52-week low, and it closed the week at $2.39.
That fall is why $5 is such a natural question. It isn’t a moonshot target. It is simply where the stock was four months ago.
Is BigBear.ai worth $5 a share?
A share price only means something next to the number of shares. BigBear.ai had 479.5 million shares at the end of June. It also had about $393 million more cash than debt. Here is what the whole company is worth at different prices:
| Share price | Market cap | Value minus net cash | Times 2026 revenue* |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.39 (Oct 9) | $1.15 billion | $0.75 billion | 5.0x |
| $4.00 (Cantor target) | $1.92 billion | $1.53 billion | 10.2x |
| $5.00 | $2.40 billion | $2.00 billion | 13.4x |
| $9.39 (52-week high) | $4.50 billion | $4.11 billion | 27.4x |
*Uses $150 million, the midpoint of BigBear.ai’s 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million.
At today’s price, investors pay about five times this year’s expected sales for the business. At $5 they would pay about 13 times. That is the kind of price usually given to fast-growing software companies. BigBear.ai grew revenue 13% last quarter and expects about 17% for the year, so $5 needs faster growth than it has shown so far.
Cash, debt and dilution
The balance sheet is the best part of the story. On June 30, 2026, BigBear.ai reported:
- $409.8 million of cash and investments.
- $16.6 million of debt, down from $107 million at the end of 2025.
- $71.0 million of total liabilities, down from $282.7 million.
- $40.2 million of cash used in operations in the first half of 2026.
At that pace, the cash would last about five years. But the cleanup came at a cost. The share count rose from 437 million to 479.5 million in six months. In April 2026, shareholders also voted to double the number of shares the company is allowed to issue, to 1 billion. Management says it is keeping the cash ready for acquisitions, so more new shares are possible.
What BigBear.ai actually does
BigBear.ai, based in McLean, Virginia, sells AI software that helps defense, intelligence and border-security agencies make decisions. It also owns Ask Sage, a generative AI platform built for government users. Ask Sage is the main reason gross margin rose to 32.8% last quarter, up from 25% a year earlier.
In the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $36.7 million and the net loss was $25.7 million. The company says it won more than 20 new contracts. Backlog, the work already signed but not yet delivered, was $269.6 million.
BBAI stock risks
- Dilution. With 1 billion shares authorized, the company can issue many more.
- Losses. BigBear.ai lost $82.5 million in the first half of 2026.
- Backlog. It slipped from $281.9 million in March to $269.6 million in June.
- Contract timing. Government awards can slip from one quarter to the next.
- Volatility. MarketBeat reports short interest near 31% of the float, which can make moves in both directions sharper.
What to watch on October 27
BigBear.ai reports third-quarter results on October 27, 2026. These are the numbers that matter most for a run back toward $5:
- Quarterly revenue of $40 million or more, which would put the year in the upper half of guidance.
- Gross margin holding above 30%.
- Backlog growing again, ideally back above $281.9 million.
- Details on any acquisition, and how it would be paid for.
Big companies like Anthropic heading to market are lifting interest in AI stocks in general. For more on the largest AI listing of the year, see Anthropic’s IPO and its missing public S-1.
Disclosure: The author holds a financial interest and an active position in BigBear.ai (BBAI), and may add to it if the stock reaches $5. Any position may change at any time without notice. This post is opinion and general information, not investment advice and not an offer to buy or sell any security. Do your own research.
BigBear.ai stock: frequently asked questions
What is BigBear.ai’s stock price?
BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) closed at $2.39 on October 9, 2026. It hit an intraday low of $2.34 on October 8, a new 52-week low. The 52-week high is $9.39.
Is BigBear.ai stock worth $5 a share?
At $5, BigBear.ai would be worth about $2.4 billion. After subtracting about $393 million of net cash, that is roughly 13 times the midpoint of its 2026 revenue guidance. That price makes sense only if growth speeds up and backlog starts rising again. It is a judgment call, not a sure thing.
When was BBAI last at $5?
BBAI last closed above $5 on June 2, 2026, at $5.11. It closed at $5.34 on June 1 and at $5.04 on May 29. The intraday high on June 1 was $5.46.
How much cash does BigBear.ai have?
BigBear.ai had $409.8 million of cash and investments on June 30, 2026, and only $16.6 million of debt. That is about $0.85 per share. The company used $40.2 million of cash in its operations in the first half of 2026.
When does BigBear.ai report earnings?
BigBear.ai reports third-quarter 2026 results on October 27, 2026. The full-year revenue guidance is $135 million to $165 million.
What is the BBAI price target?
According to MarketBeat, Cantor Fitzgerald cut its BBAI price target to $4 with a neutral rating, and the consensus rating is Hold. Price targets change often, so check the latest before relying on one.
Sources: BigBear.ai Q2 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 earnings release (SEC), April 2026 share vote (SEC), MarketBeat, Alpha Vantage price data. Cover photo: New York Stock Exchange, Broad Street, by Jakub Hałun, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0 (cropped).